THE PAST AS PROLOGUE:
THE 1996 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION BY REGION AND STATE

The last presidential election is not always a good indicator of the one to come. But this year, a look at the 1996 election map (above) could be instructive, particularly if it is looked at beyond the normal terms of Democrat versus Republican. That one-on-one competition was pretty one-sided: 31 states (plus D.C.) and 379 electoral votes for Democrat Bill Clinton; 19 states and 159 electoral votes for Republican Bob Dole.

But Clinton was re-elected in 1996 with just 49% of the popular vote. Divide his states into those he won with a majority of the popular vote and those he carried with a mere plurality, and add in those that voted Republican, and one gets a reasonable idea of where the 2000 presidential race begins.

This tri-section is not a perfect overlay, to be sure. Every presidential election is different. Yet by and large, Al Gore should be strongest in most of the states that Clinton won last time with more than 50% of the vote. That does not mean Gore should win them all. But they would provide a starting point for Democratic strategists in exploring how to try and reach the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.

The 18 states (plus D.C.) that Clinton won in 1996 with a majority of the vote include virtually all the Northeast, California, and portions of the vote-rich Frost Belt from New Jersey to Minnesota. The Clinton-majority states, plus the District of Columbia, have 230 electoral votes.

1996 ELECTORAL VOTES
a	Clinton		Dole
	Majority	Plurality
Northeast	100	27	0
Midwest	57	43	29
South	15	44	104
West	58	35	26
TOTAL	230	149	159

The base for George W. Bush is logically the 19 states that Dole carried, concentrated in the vast sector of the country that can be called the Republican "L." The "L" is comprised of the South, the Plains states, and the Mountain West, including Alaska, and has been the cornerstone of the Republican presidential coalition over much of the last half century.

Dole did not sweep all the states within the "L" in 1996, but the only state that he won outside it was Indiana. As mentioned, the Dole states hold 159 electoral votes.

That leaves the 13 states that Clinton won in 1996 with less than 50% of the vote. They represent many of the prime battlegrounds of 2000, and can be found in all parts of the country – including Pennsylvania in the Northeast, Ohio in the Midwest, and Florida in the South. Altogether, the Clinton-plurality states have 149 electoral votes.

In the table below, the popular vote percentages are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point, and the margins of victory are based on the differences between the Clinton and Dole percentages.

The 1996 Election	Electoral Votes		Percentage of Popular Vote			Winner and Margin (in % points)
	Dems.	Reps.	Clinton (D)	Dole (R)	Perot (Reform)
NATIONAL	379	159	49%	41%	8%	Clinton by 8%
NORTHEAST	(127)	(0)
Connecticut	8		53%	35%	10%	Clinton by 18%
Delaware	3		52%	37%	11%	Clinton by 15%
Maine	4		52%	31%	14%	Clinton by 21%
Maryland	10		54%	38%	7%	Clinton by 16%
Massachusetts	12		61%	28%	9%	Clinton by 33%
New Hampshire	4		49%	39%	10%	Clinton by 10%
New Jersey	15		54%	36%	9%	Clinton by 18%
New York	33		59%	31%	8%	Clinton by 28%
Pennsylvania	23		49%	40%	10%	Clinton by 9%
Rhode Island	4		60%	27%	11%	Clinton by 33%
Vermont	3		53%	31%	12%	Clinton by 22%
West Virginia	5		52%	37%	11%	Clinton by 15%
D.C.	3		85%	9%	2%	Clinton by 76%
	Electoral Votes		Percentage of Popular Vote			Winner and Margin (in % points)
	Dems.	Reps.	Clinton (D)	Dole (R)	Perot (Reform)
MIDWEST	(100)	(29)
Illinois	22		54%	37%	8%	Clinton by 17%
Indiana		12	42%	47%	11%	Dole by 5%
Iowa	7		50%	40%	9%	Clinton by 10%
Kansas		6	36%	54%	9%	Dole by 18%
Michigan	18		52%	38%	9%	Clinton by 14%
Minnesota	10		51%	35%	12%	Clinton by 16%
Missouri	11		48%	41%	10%	Clinton by 7%
Nebraska		5	35%	54%	11%	Dole by 19%
North Dakota		3	40%	47%	12%	Dole by 7%
Ohio	21		47%	41%	11%	Clinton by 6%
South Dakota		3	43%	46%	10%	Dole by 3%
Wisconsin	11		49%	38%	10%	Clinton by 11%
	Electoral Votes		Percentage of Popular Vote			Winner and Margin (in % points)
	Dems.	Reps.	Clinton (D)	Dole (R)	Perot (Reform)
SOUTH	(59)	(104)
Alabama		9	43%	50%	6%	Dole by 7%
Arkansas	6		54%	37%	8%	Clinton by 17%
Florida	25		48%	42%	9%	Clinton by 6%
Georgia		13	46%	47%	6%	Dole by 1%
Kentucky	8		46%	45%	9%	Clinton by 1%
Louisiana	9		52%	40%	7%	Clinton by 12%
Mississippi		7	44%	49%	6%	Dole by 5%
North Carolina		14	44%	49%	7%	Dole by 5%
Oklahoma		8	40%	48%	11%	Dole by 8%
South Carolina		8	44%	50%	6%	Dole by 6%
Tennessee	11		48%	46%	6%	Clinton by 2%
Texas		32	44%	49%	7%	Dole by 5%
Virginia		13	45%	47%	7%	Dole by 2%
	Electoral Votes		Percentage of Popular Vote			Winner and Margin (in % points)
	Dems.	Reps.	Clinton (D)	Dole (R)	Perot (Reform)
WEST	(93)	(26)
Alaska		3	33%	51%	11%	Dole by 18%
Arizona	8		47%	44%	8%	Clinton by 3%
California	54		51%	38%	7%	Clinton by 13%
Colorado		8	44%	46%	7%	Dole by 2%
Hawaii	4		57%	32%	8%	Clinton by 25%
Idaho		4	34%	52%	13%	Dole by 18%
Montana		3	41%	44%	14%	Dole by 3%
Nevada	4		44%	43%	9%	Clinton by 1%
New Mexico	5		49%	42%	6%	Clinton by 7%
Oregon	7		47%	39%	9%	Clinton by 8%
Utah		5	33%	54%	10%	Dole by 21%
Washington	11		49.8%	37%	9%	Clinton by 13%
Wyoming		3	37%	50%	12%	Dole by 13%