THE 'DELAWARE BOUNCE'?

It is an open question whether George W. Bush’s victory in Delaware’s Republican primary Feb. 8 will staunch the hemorrhaging begun by his landslide loss in New Hampshire. Bush campaigned in Delaware and finished first. John McCain did not and finished second.

But the Delaware vote might provide some subtle clues as to what will happen Feb. 19 in South Carolina. Delaware is a border state, with populous New Castle County in the north a part of the populous "Amtrak corridor" that extends from Boston to Washington, D.C. The two counties to the south of New Castle - Kent and Sussex - are more rural and Dixie-oriented in their voting heritage.

Delaware GOP Primary (February 8, 2000)
Candidates	Votes	Percentage	Counties Won
George W. Bush	15,250	50.7%	3
John McCain	7,638	25.4%	0
Steve Forbes	5,883	19.6%	0
Alan Keyes	1,148	3.8%	0
Gary Bauer	120	0.4%	0
Orrin Hatch	21	0.1%	0
Total Votes	30,060
Delegates Won: Bush 12

Bush won everywhere in Delaware. But he ran a bit better in the more rural, southern counties than he did in New Castle, which contains Wilmington and its suburbs. Bush’s best showing was in Kent County, which includes the state capital of Dover. There, he won 55% of the vote.

Meanwhile, McCain’s performance was the opposite. The Arizona senator drew 31% in Wilmington, 27% in suburban New Castle County, and barely 20% in the two southern counties.

Whether that pattern will hold in South Carolina – Bush stronger in rural areas, McCain stronger in metropolitan areas – remains to be seen. But Delaware’s Republican primary did continue the weekly winnowing of the GOP primary field.

Orrin Hatch dropped out after a sixth (and last) place finish in the Iowa caucuses. Gary Bauer quit the race after a fifth (and last place finish) in New Hampshire. And Steve Forbes folded his campaign after a distant third place finish in Delaware.

Forbes had won the Delaware GOP primary in 1996, one of only two primaries that he won that year. But the wealthy publisher was the only candidate to campaign in Delaware in 1996.

This year he was challenged by Bush, who had the support of much of the Delaware Republican establishment. Bush took more than half the primary vote and collected all 12 delegates under the state GOP’s winner-take-all rules.

The party-run event Feb. 8 used only about one-tenth as many polling places as are open in the general election. Still, turnout was about three times higher in the GOP voting than the non-binding, state-run Democratic primary held three days earlier.

Delaware Democratic Primary (February 5, 2000)
Candidates	Votes	Percentage	Counties Won
Al Gore	6,349	57.2%	3
Bill Bradley	4,465	40.3%	0
Lyndon LaRouche	279	2.5%	0
Total Votes	11,093
Delegates Won: No delegates were at stake. Democrats held a non-binding, "beauty contest" primary. Delegate selection will be through a caucus process that begins March 27.

That was won by Al Gore, who easily carried all three Delaware counties. The vote for Bill Bradley ranged from 35% in the majority-black city of Wilmington to 42% in suburban New Castle County.

Participation in the Delaware primary was limited to registered voters in each party, with 5% of registered Democrats and 18% of registered Republicans casting ballots. In both parties, the vast majority of the vote came out of New Castle County; it was the source of nearly two-thirds of the ballots cast in the Democratic primary and 60% in the Republican.

The primary results are based on complete but unofficial returns.