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THE MICHIGAN PRIMARY
Michigan’s Republican presidential primary has been a welcome stop for establishment favorites from Gerald Ford to Bob Dole. And twice, the Michigan primary was won by George Bush, including 1980, when his campaign was crumbling nationally. Backed by the state’s popular Republican governor, William G. Milliken, Bush prevailed easily that year over Ronald Reagan.
Yet the Michigan primary also has a strong sense of volatility to it. Any of Michigan’s more than 6 million registered voters can participate in the primary of their choice.
PRIMARY WINNERS SINCE 1972 WINNERS' MARGINS OF VICTORY PRIMARY TURNOUTS SINCE 1972 In 1972, for instance, there were nearly 1.6 million ballots cast in Michigan’s Democratic primary compared to barely 300,000 in the Republican primary, as a flood of Republicans and independents entered the Democratic primary to give George Wallace a landslide victory.
In 1976, though, the movement of voters was in the other direction. Democratic turnout plummeted to barely 700,000, while the Republican turnout skyrocketed to more than 1 million, as Michigan voters handed native son Jerry Ford a lopsided victory in the GOP primary.
Only the Republican primary will elect delegates Feb. 22. The Democratic primary is a non-binding event that will feature a choice between Lyndon LaRouche and an Uncommitted line. The Reform Party will also have a non-binding primary with Donald Trump and an Uncommitted line.
MICHIGAN PRIMARY WINNERS SINCE 1972 sss DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Year Winner Winner's % Winner Winner's % 1972 George Wallace 51 Richard Nixon* 96 1976 Jimmy Carter 43 Gerald Ford* 65 1980 Uncommitted 46 George Bush 57 1984 - - - - 1988 - - - - 1992 Bill Clinton 51 George Bush* 67 1996 Uncommitted 87 Bob Dole 51 2000 - - 51%
WINNERS' MARGINS OF VICTORY
(In Percentage Points in Contested Races)1972 WALLACE by 24% over George McGovern 1976 CARTER by 0.3% over Morris Udall FORD by 31% over Ronald Reagan 1980 BUSH by 26% over Ronald Reagan 1984 1988 1992 CLINTON by 25% over Jerry Brown BUSH by 42% over Pat Buchanan 1996 DOLE by 17% over Pat Buchanan 2000
W. Bush
MICHIGAN PRIMARY TURNOUTS SINCE 1972 Democrats Republicans Combined Primary Vote General Election Vote Primary Vote as Percent of General Election Vote 1972 1,588,073* 336,743 1,924,816* 3,489,727 55.2%* 1976 708,666 1,062,814 1,771,480 3,653,749 48.5% 1980 78,424 595,176 673,600 3,909,725 17.2% 1984 - - - 3,801,658 - 1988 - - - 3,669,163 - 1992 585,972 449,133 1,035,105 4,274,673* 24.2% 1996 142,750 524,161 666,911 3,848,844 17.3% 2000 1,274,149* 1,317,577 Note: An asterisk (*) indicates the highest total in each category. Results from the 2000 primary are based on nearly complete but unofficial returns.
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© Rhodes Cook 2001.
Rhodes Cook
rhodescook@aol.com