THE BUSHES IN VIRGINIA: TWO WAYS TO WIN 53%

Virginia has held only two Republican presidential primaries in its history, both won by members of the Bush family with 53% of the vote.

George Bush swept every Virginia county and city in the 1988 GOP primary, as Bob Dole and Pat Robertson divided most of the rest of the ballots. George W.'s 53% vote share this year, though, produced a less decisive victory over John McCain.

McCain established beachheads in each end of the state's "urban crescent," a populous corridor that extends northwestward from the Tidewater to the Richmond area, and then due north to the suburbs of Northern Virginia.

As a result, "W" ran behind his father's 1988 showing in much of suburban Northern Virginia and parts of the Tidewater, including Virginia Beach, the home base of televangelist Pat Robertson as well as many military families. As well, the younger Bush's percentage was lower than his father's in most of Virginia's leading academic communities.

George W., though, outpaced his father in much of the rest of Virginia, particularly the most conservative, Republican-oriented parts.

Turnout for the Republican primary this year was up dramatically over 1988 - in part, a reflection of the state's recent population growth (especially in Northern Virginia), the heat of this year's Bush-McCain contest, and the absence of a Democratic primary. In 1988, there was one, which attracted 365,000 voters.

	Bush '88	G.W. Bush '00	Change from '88	Nov. '96 Winner	GOP Primary Turnouts
					1988	2000	Change in Primary Turnout from '88
STATEWIDE	53%	53%	None	Dole	234,142	664,687	Up 184%
10 Most Populous Counties
NORTHERN VIRGINIA
Arlington Co.	50%	36%	Down 14%	Clinton	8,201	23,312	Up 184%
Fairfax Co.	53%	44%	Down 9%	Dole	45,244	126,214	Up 179%
Prince William Co.	50%	49%	Down 1%	Dole	6,483	25,821	Up 298%
RICHMOND AREA
Richmond	62%	50%	Down 12%	Clinton	6,411	13,499	Up 111%
Henrico Co.	61%	63%	Up 2%	Dole	9,700	29,558	Up 205%
Chesterfield Co.	54%	65%	Up 11%	Dole	8,841	28,192	Up 219%
TIDEWATER
Norfolk	52%	40%	Down 12%	Clinton	7,231	14,180	Up 96%
Virginia Beach	48%	44%	Down 4%	Dole	17,464	44,213	Up 153%
Newport News	51%	52%	Up 1%	Clinton	7,686	13,694	Up 78%
Chesapeake	45%	53%	Up 8%	Dole	5,389	17,095	Up 217%
Other Jurisdictions
High-Growth Exurb
Loudoun Co.	51%	49%	Down 2%	Dole	3,673	20,005	Up 445%
Academic-Oriented
Charlottesville (U. of Virginia)	46%	42%	Down 4%	Clinton	1,061	2,768	Up 161%
Lexington (Washington & Lee, V.M.I.)	43%	41%	Down 2%	Clinton	289	636	Up 120%
Williamsburg (William and Mary)	57%	40%	Down 17%	Clinton	444	1,286	Up 190%
Black Majority
Petersburg	65%	56%	Down 9%	Clinton	852	1,160	Up 36%
Charles City Co.	59%	68%	Up 9%	Clinton	80	311	Up 289%
Republican Strongholds
Colonial Heights	57%	71%	Up 14%	Dole	993	2,089	Up 110%
Poquoson	55%	56%	Up 1%	Dole	756	1,882	Up 149%
Rockingham Co.	40%	65%	Up 25%	Dole	1,226	5,379	Up 339%
Note: The black-majority jurisdictions listed above are those in Virginia with the highest proportion of blacks. The Republican strongholds were the most supportive of the GOP ticket percentagewise in the 1996 presidential election.