BACK INTO THE MOSH PIT...

It wasn’t supposed to be this way.

State-by-State Results Page National charts and results from the states that have already voted.

With his huge financial resources and wall-to-wall support from the Republican Party hierarchy, George W. Bush was expected to coast to the GOP presidential nomination.

But with the primary season almost a month old, John McCain has won more primaries than Bush (three to two), drawn roughly 140,000 more primary votes than Bush, and has won more delegates.

The situation could change quickly. Once the calendar turns to March, the state-by-state combat is replaced by a barrage of primaries and caucuses that Bush is considered best positioned to contest.

But the beauty of this year’s race is that it’s unclear what lies ahead. Much clearer is what has already happened, which has given us some important clues about the nature of this year’s Republican nominating process.

First, it is a year when rules may matter, starting with those governing voter participation. Who can vote where has become a major concern, as Bush has dominated the vote of fellow Republicans, while McCain has monopolized the votes of independents and Democrats.

Lining up exit polls from the Republican primaries with the actual results of the 2.4 million ballots cast, one gets vote totals for the three categories that look something like this. (For the purposes of this tally, votes cast in the "closed" primary states of Arizona and Delaware are all considered to be cast by Republicans.)

sss	% of Total GOP Primary Votes	McCain	Bush	Margin
Republicans	59%	505,000	820,000	Bush by 315,000
Independents	30%	460,000	195,000	McCain by 265,000
Democrats	11%	220,000	30,000	McCain by 190,000
TOTAL		1,185,000	1,045,000	McCain by 140,000

Second, it is a year when rules governing the allocation of delegates may be important. Unlike the Democrats, who require delegates be divided proportionally among candidates to reflect a state’s primary or caucus vote, Republicans allow their state parties wide latitude in how they distribute their delegates.

PREVIOUS ANALYSES

AFTER NEW HAMPSHIRE: Two Paths Diverge… With the votes from New Hampshire tallied and in the record books, the 2000 presidential nominating campaign has moved in separate directions for the two major parties... <more...>

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That latitude was on display in the first two primaries of the year, when Bush took more delegates for winning Delaware (12) than McCain did for winning New Hampshire (10). New Hampshire Republicans employed proportional representation; Delaware, winner-take-all.

But winner-take-all worked powerfully for McCain on Feb. 22, magnifying his twin victories in Michigan and Arizona. Altogether, McCain took 82 of the 88 delegates at stake – an advantage of 76 delegates. However, if proportional representation had been in effect as with the Democrats, the day’s tally would have produced an advantage for McCain of about 15 delegates.

Third, it is a year when geography may be critical. McCain has won the two primaries held north of the Mason-Dixon line, New Hampshire and Michigan. Bush has won the two primaries held south of it, Delaware and South Carolina.

Each pair of victories was decisive. McCain swept 16 of the 18 congressional districts contested in the two Frost Belt primaries, losing to Bush only in the two Michigan districts that Bob Dole carried in the November 1996 presidential election – the Michigan 2nd and 3rd.. Each district is built around a major GOP county – the 2nd, Ottawa (Holland) and the 3rd, Kent (Grand Rapids), the congressional base of Gerald Ford.

Meanwhile, Bush has won six of the seven congressional districts contested south of the Mason-Dixon line, narrowly losing only the coastal South Carolina 1st District to McCain.

Fourth, it is a year when voters have shown they will turn out when there is something to vote for. Republican primary turnout was up 30,000 votes from 1996 in New Hampshire, up 290,000 votes in South Carolina, and up 750,000 votes in Michigan. Altogether, more than 1 million more ballots were cast in the first five Republican primaries than in 1996.

But record turnouts have not been universal. Voter participation has been down where McCain has not competed – Iowa and Delaware - or where he put his campaign on cruise control, as was the case in his home state of Arizona.

More clues about the nature of this year’s nominating contest may come from the trio of states that vote Feb. 29.

None of them boast a long primary tradition. Virginia held one previous presidential primary, in 1988, which on the Republican side was a non-binding beauty contest won by George Bush.

Washington held two primaries in the 1990s, the one in 1992 being the most famous because it produced a large write-in vote for Ross Perot, the first sign of the wealthy Texan’s appeal at the ballot box.

And after holding little-noticed presidential primaries in the 1980s and 1990s, North Dakota has switched this year to a caucus process.

But each in its way may be a harbinger of things to come.

Low-turnout caucuses are traditionally fertile ground for insurgent candidates who can often dominant the event with a dedicated cadre of supporters. It would seem to be a setting where McCain could make hay. Yet Bush won earlier caucus votes in Iowa and Alaska and McCain energetically competed in neither.

Virginia should be fertile ground for Bush. It is part of a region he has already begun to dominate and he has the active support of the state’s Republican governor.

Yet Virginia has an open primary and the vote in the bustling suburbs of Northern Virginia in particular could be a precursor of Republican primary voting in the populous "Northeast Corridor," which extends from metropolitan Washington, D.C., northeastward to Boston. Many of the rest of the states in the "Corridor" vote March 7.

Still, no event on Feb. 29 is likely to be more intriguing, or more confusing, than the primary in Washington state. Voters will have a choice of three ballots – Republican, Democratic, and unaffiliated, the latter of hich will include the names of candidates from both parties.

Only the Republican primary will elect delegates. Yet in 1996, more than 440,000 Washington voters took the unaffiliated ballot, roughly twice the number that voted in the Democratic and Republican primaries combined.

The results from the unaffiliated primary proved prescient. Bill Clinton finished first with 51% of the vote, almost identical to the 50% share he garnered in the November general election in winning Washington.