RhodesCook.com

Depending on which poll one tends to favor, the Democratic senatorial nominee in Massachusetts is either way ahead of or narrowly behind her Republican rival with the special election to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat just one week off.

According to a Boston Globe poll taken early this month, state Attorney General Martha Coakley leads GOP state Sen. Scott Brown among likely voters by 50% to 35%, with 5% of respondents for Joe Kennedy, who bills himself as “The Tea Party Candidate.” (The latter is no relation to the similarly named member of the Kennedy clan). Other recent surveys have shown a more competitive race, from a Coakley lead in the high single digits to one showing Brown up by 1 point.

One thing is certain: a Coakley loss would be a disaster for the Democrats nationally. They are already reeling from decisive gubernatorial losses in Virginia and New Jersey and a recent rush of congressional and gubernatorial retirements. A loss in the bluest of blue states - for Kennedy’s seat no less - might throw the party into a deep funk that they may not be able to escape in 2010.

At first glance, the terrain appears tailor made for a Democratic victory in the Jan. 19 special election. Democrats have held both Senate seats in Massachusetts since the late 1970s, all 10 House seats since the mid-1990s, and Barack Obama carried the Bay State in the 2008 presidential election by the landslide margin of 26 percentage points.

But that is just part of the picture. Massachusetts has a large blue-collar population vulnerable to the current economic downturn, a strong Roman Catholic presence that can push debate in a socially conservative direction, and a huge mass of independent voters that has helped elect Republican governors on a regular basis over the last two decades.

In this environment, a Democratic loss next Tuesday would be explainable. But given the state’s liberal reputation, it would still be a very bitter pill for the party to swallow. And it would immediately raise the question: If the Democrats can’t win in Massachusetts, where can they?