RhodesCook.com

One of my father’s favorite sayings was “Once an accident; twice an accident; three times never.”

In terms of major electoral defeats during the Obama administration, the Democratic total has now reached three. The gubernatorial setbacks in New Jersey and Virginia last November could be partially explained away as their usual off-year vote for the “out party.”

But with the Democrats’ latest loss in the Senate race in “deep blue” Massachusetts, we now have a trend. Whatever the Democrats are selling, voters are clearly not buying.

A quick look at the numbers shows the sharp reversal of fortune that has taken place in just one year. Barack Obama swept Massachusetts, New Jersey and Virginia in 2008 by a combined margin of more than 1.6 million votes. Since then, Republicans have won the three big statewide elections in these states by an aggregate plurality in excess of 500,000 votes.

That in the face of personal involvement by President Obama, especially in the contests in New Jersey and Massachusetts. In New Jersey, Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine tied himself closely to Obama, represented by a billboard that had Obama’s picture in the foreground, Corzine’s in the background, and the tag line: “Keep it Going.”

In Massachusetts, the president lent his prestige to the embattled Democratic Senate candidate, Martha Coakley, by making a quickly scheduled campaign trip to Boston Sunday on her behalf. His full-throated endorsement was turned into an election-eve ad for Coakley in a desperate bid to rally a dispirited Democratic base.

Yet in none of the states did Obama’s involvement help produce a victory. In all three, Republicans were energized, Democrats were in a defensive crouch, and independents – who had been a major part of the decisive Democratic triumphs in 2006 and 2008 - flocked in huge numbers to the GOP candidates.

The Democrats have 10 months to get their act together for the November election. But they do not have nearly that long to change the 2010 story line of Democratic weakness before it hardens into accepted fact.