Thoughts on the Early Primaries

Only two states have held their primaries thus far this year, but they are too big ones – Illinois and Texas. What do the results say about anti-incumbent sentiment in 2010? It actually depends on which level of government one is focusing on.

Governors. On the firing line

Two gubernatorial incumbents have run for renomination thus far, Democrat Pat Quinn in Illinois and Republican Rick Perry in Texas, and both had highly competitive primaries. Quinn won by less than 10,000 votes out of more than 900,000 cast. Perry triumphed by a much wider margin over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, by shrewdly turning her incumbency in Washington into a more negative commodity than his own stewardship in Austin. Still, Perry totaled only 53% of the vote in the three-way race. The message: many incumbent governors this year may need to tap all their political skills to survive, even their party’s primary.

 Representatives. No sweat so far

Although Congress is held in minimum high regard these days, House members have encountered little resistance at all thus far in their party’s primary voting. None have lost. And of the 18 representatives that faced intra-party challenges in Illinois and Texas, only one – Republican octogenarian Ralph Hall of Texas – received less than 60% of the vote. “Tea party” activists provided the opposition in some districts, but the early results show that what anger exists toward Congress should not automatically be considered to be anti-incumbent votes.

Senators. Untested until now

No sitting senator has yet to face his party’s primary voters. The first big test for Senate incumbents will come May 18, when Democrats Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas draw significant primary opposition. Yet an inkling of anti-incumbent sentiment could come as early as the next few days. Party caucuses in Colorado March 16 and Utah March 23 will test the strength, at least among grass-roots activists, of Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet and Republican Sen. Robert Bennett, respectively. Utah’s Bennett, faces a slew of GOP opponents who claim that he is not conservative enough for the Beehive State. Colorado’s Bennet, who was appointed to the Senate, faces an intra-party challenge from former state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff. Heightening the importance of the Colorado race is that Bennet has the support of President Barack Obama, the first of several Democratic contests this year in which the White House has endorsed one candidate over another.