2010 Primaries: Veterans Beware

The primary defeat Tuesday of Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) on the heels of the convention loss last Saturday of Sen. Robert Bennett (R-UT) confirms a trend that has been evident for at least the last two decades – namely, that it is not congressional freshmen and sophomores who are most vulnerable to being denied renomination by their party, but veteran members who have served 10, 15, or even 20 years or more on Capitol Hill.

From 1990 through 2008, a majority of House members (24 of 46) who suffered primary defeat were in their fifth term or above. And three of the four senators in this period who were denied renomination had served more than a decade in the nation’s upper chamber.

The early action this year is continuing that trend. Bennett is in his 18^th year in the Senate, while Mollohan is in his 28^th year in the House of Representatives.

The latter came a cropper in large part because of ethics controversies, one of the oldest causes of primary defeats. Questions about his personal wealth and use of his position on the House Appropriations Committee were allegedly at the heart of a Justice Department investigation of Mollohan several years ago. Meanwhile, Bennett was defeated largely on ideological grounds, with his Utah critics complaining that he was not sufficiently conservative and too much of Washington.

Both Bennett and Mollohan were easy winners in the past. But in this year’s volatile, anti-Washington environment, each was a big loser in spite of large campaign chests and help from allies on the national stage.

Bennett was eliminated on the second of three rounds of balloting at the Utah Republican convention, never reaching 30% of the vote on any of them. Under Utah’s unique nominating rules, he is now out of the race, barring a difficult write-in campaign in the general election.

In Mollohan’s northern West Virginia district, the incumbent – who ran unopposed in both the primary and general election in 2008 - was brought down by a margin of 11 percentage points.

None of this bodes well for other veteran legislators who must face their party’s voters in the weeks ahead, a long list that starts with veteran Democratic senators Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania on May 18.