Can Obama Follow Reagan's Trajectory?

When it comes to President Barack Obama and reelection, probably the best comparison is not with fellow Democrat Bill Clinton in 1995-96, but Republican Ronald Reagan in 1983-84.

At least, that is the case in terms of the country’s number one issue, the economy. The nation was stuck in recession during Reagan’s first midterm election in 1982, and Republicans lost ground in the House and in the statehouses. So too the Democrats in 2010, Obama’s first midterm.

But Reagan went on to handily win reelection in 1984, aided by an improving economy that enabled the president to buoyantly advertise that it was “Morning in America.” Could Obama be so fortunate in 2012?

While aspects of the present economic crisis are worse than the early 1980s, Reagan had to deal with an unemployment rate higher than any reached thus far during the Obama presidency. Unemployment was nearly 11% at the time of the 1982 election and remained above 10% until the following summer. Recovery accelerated after that. The unemployment rate fell under 9% in the fall of 1983, and below 8% in early 1984. By November 1984, unemployment was down to 7.2%

The good news for Reagan was that as the unemployment rate steadily came down, his presidential approval rating inched up. Below 40% in the Gallup poll at the beginning of 1983, his rating was above 50% by the end of that year and approached 60% by Election Day 1984.

In the process, hints of political vulnerability vanished. Reagan ran unopposed for renomination in the Republican primaries, attracted no third party of note in the general election, and had the good fortune to face a Democratic nominee (former Vice President Walter Mondale) who had struggled to win his party’s nomination.

So far, Obama has been able to follow Reagan’s post-midterm trajectory. The unemployment rate, which reached 10% in late 2009, has just gone under 9%. And the president’s job approval rating reached 50% this January after spending much of 2010 mired well below that.

For good measure, there are no signs that Obama will face a significant challenge in the Democratic primaries, while the Republican field is slow to form and is a rare muddle.

But that picture could change dramatically in the months ahead. The economy is far from healthy. Trouble spots abound around the globe. Gas prices are up, which often magnifies voter unease with whoever is the occupant of the White House. And the political tug of war between Democrats and Republicans – both in Washington and the states – continues to heat up.

The most that Obama’s supporters can really say right now about his chances for reelection next year are “so far, so good.”