In a sense, the election of 2002 was a second Republican revolution. It was not as grand or as expansive as the first in 1994, when Republicans gained control of both houses of Congress for the first time in 40 years, as well as taking a majority of the nation’s governorships.

But the balloting Nov. 5 dispelled any lingering doubt as to whether the election eight years ago represented an interlude in the Democrats’ long dominance of congressional and state-level politics or launched a whole new political era that would favor the GOP.

The election of 2002 was no landslide, but its result was a clear affirmation of the verdict rendered in 1994. In short, the results underscored that while the nation may still be closely divided politically, it can be safely described these days as “leaning Republican.”

Just look at the vote in recent years for the U.S. House of Representatives, the lone office every two years that can be aggregated into a semblance of a nationwide vote. In the elections of 1996, 1998 and 2000, the Republican advantage in the House balloting was less than 1 million votes. This year, the GOP plurality swelled to nearly 4.4 million in the nearly complete but unofficial tally. That is comparable to the Republican edge of 4.9 million votes in the 1994 House vote.

But even more compelling has been the change in the vote-getting appeal of the two parties in recent years, as reflected in the House balloting. Since 1990, the last midterm election when Democrats won a majority of congressional seats, the nationwide vote for Democratic House candidates has dropped by 1.5 million, while the Republican vote has increased by more than 7.5 million.

The numbers may change slightly when this year’s vote is re-tallied with official results. But the basic thrust is clear: The Democratic congressional vote, at best, has remained flat over the last dozen years, while the GOP House vote has expanded by more than 25%.

This year’s pay off for the GOP was its most complete top-to-bottom victory since 1994, with the party regaining control of the Senate, strengthening its advantage in the House of Representatives, holding a majority of the nation’s governorships, and even gaining scores of seats in the state legislatures.

A number of factors are credited in fashioning the outcome. President George W. Bush inserted himself big time into the midterm election, raising tens of millions of dollars for the GOP and its candidates, then lending his popularity to these candidates by intensively campaigning on their behalf up to election eve. Meanwhile, the Democrats had no competing figure to promote its candidates, nor in the minds of many, a compelling agenda to woo late-deciding voters.

The result was a late surge to the GOP and an historic midterm showing by the president’s party. Republicans gained six House and two Senate seats, marking the first time since 1934, when voters gave their stamp of approval to FDR and the Democrats, that the president’s party has gained ground in both houses of Congress in a midterm election.

According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, this is also the first midterm in which the president’s party has registered a net gain in state legislative seats.

And according to an observant subscriber in Australia, political scientist Malcolm Mackerras, this is the first time that the president’s party has gained control of the Senate in a midterm election. This is a fact that could neither be confirmed nor denied by the Senate historian’s office, but looks to be accurate, certainly since the popular election of senators was instituted in 1913.

And Now, Some Caveats

Giving luster to the Republicans’ performance was the fact that they won the trifecta. They took the Senate. They took the House. And they handily reelected the president’s younger brother, Jeb Bush. The bete noir of Democrats after the controversial finish to the 2000 election in the Sunshine State, the Florida Bush was the Republican that Democrats most wanted to beat this year. Yet Bush won by more than 600,000 votes.

Unlike 1994, the GOP did not have to swing a large number of seats to reach their goals. They entered Election Day already possessing a majority of House seats and governorships, and were just one seat down in the Senate. They hardly needed a tidal wave when a small ripple in their direction was sufficient. And that is essentially what they got.

In 1994, 56 of the 60 House seats that switched party hands went to the Republicans, as did all eight Senate seats. This year, one could almost count on both hands the number of House seats that swung from one party to the other, and the number of partisan seat switches in the Senate was just four - three going to the Republicans, one to the Democrats. In short, there was not the massive one-way flow of seats as in 1994, but a trickle that rewarded the Republicans a bit more than the Democrats.

Counting the Ballots: The Nationwide Vote in 2002 for Congress and Governors
Republicans had a lot to defend in the 2002 election, but they proved successful at doing it. GOP candidates won 53% of all seats in the House of Representatives, 61% of the governorships at stake, and 67% of the Senate seats decided Nov. 5. Republicans also had the edge in the aggregate nationwide vote at each level. The House balloting is broken down into two tallies - that for all races, and that for the seats contested by each party. There were 80 House winners this year without major-party opposition (44 Republicans, 36 Democrats). The tallies below are based on nearly complete but unofficial returns from the balloting Nov. 5. The runoff voting for a Senate and House seat in Louisiana Dec. 7 is not included.
	Seats Won				Votes Cast					Percentage of Vote
	Dems.	Reps.	Others	Total Vote	Dems.	Reps.	Others		Plurality	Dems.	Reps.	Others
HOUSE
All Races	205	229	1	68,367,885	30,895,208	35,292,516	2,180,161	R	4,397,308	45.2%	51.6%	3.2%
Contested Races	169	185	1	61,860,449	29,218,078	31,322,159	1,320,212	R	2,104,081	47.2%	50.6%	2.1%
SENATE
All Races	11	22	0	42,421,611	19,514,722	21,375,365	1,531,524	R	1,860,643	46.0%	50.4%	3.6%
GOVERNORS
All Races	14	22	0	61,196,088	27,297,419	30,410,854	3,487,815	R	3,113,435	44.6%	49.7%	5.7%

Ultimately, at the congressional level, the election of 2002 was as much about incumbency as anything else. When congressional districts were last redrawn a decade ago, 111 seats were won with less than 55% of the total vote and 43 incumbents were defeated (19 in the primaries, 24 in the general election).

This year, there were only 47 sub-55% winners and just 16 House incumbents were beaten (eight each in the primaries and general election). And half that number was paired with another House member in the same district.

It was so pro-incumbent a year that Democrat Patsy Mink of Hawaii was reelected with 56% of the vote more than a month after she had died. Republican Virgil Goode of Virginia, who had just joined his new party in August, won another term with 64%. Democrat Jim McDermott of Washington, who made a controversial trip to Iraq shortly before the election, was reelected with 75%. And Democrat Barbara Lee of California, who shortly after 9/11 cast the lone vote in Congress against granting President Bush authority to use military force against those responsible for the attacks, won again with 81%.

Meanwhile, two House freshmen, Democrat Mike Ross of Arkansas and Republican Shelley Moore Capito of West Virginia, easily won rematches with at least 60% of the vote against rivals they had narrowly beaten two years ago.

But probably most indicative of the pro-incumbent nature of the year was the fate of the 57 “marginal” House members, who had won their seat in 2000 with less than 55% of the total vote. Of this group, just three lost – Republican Connie Morella of Maryland, and Democrats Bill Luther of Minnesota and Jim Maloney of Connecticut (who was paired in a new district with Republican Nancy Johnson).

Four of the marginals retired, ran for other office, or in the case of James A. Traficant Jr. of Ohio, were expelled from the House. A dozen remained marginal in 2002, winning again with less than 55% of the vote. But 38 – or two-thirds of the entire group – graduated from marginal status and won reelection this year by a more comfortable margin than 2000.

Fur Flies in the Gubernatorial Races

The greatest volatility and highest level of competition this year was found in the races for governor. Of the 36 gubernatorial contests, 24 were won with less than 55%. Twenty governorships switched party hands.

Democrats picked up governors’ chairs in some major battleground states, such as Illinois, Michigan and Pennsylvania, as well as such unlikely places as Kansas, Oklahoma and Wyoming. Republicans scored pickups in some similarly unlikely terrain, such as Hawaii and Maryland, as well as holding governorships in the big Southern linchpins of Florida and Texas.

The vast majority of governorships that switched party hands in 2002 were open seats. But a number of incumbent governors also ran into trouble at the ballot box. Four of the 16 who sought reelection were defeated, including three Democrats in the Deep South states of Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina.

And even in victory, several gubernatorial heavyweights saw their vote share decline noticeably from 1998. Democrat Gray Davis won a second term with just 47% of the vote, down 11 percentage points from four years earlier. Republican George Pataki won a third term with 49%, down 5 points, while in Texas, Republican Rick Perry won his first full term with 58%, down 10 points from the 1998 showing of his predecessor, George W. Bush. Among the big-name governors, Jeb Bush was a conspicuous exception. In spite of being a prime target of the Democrats in 2002, his 56% of the vote was 1 point better than 1998.

If the congressional races were a place where voters could show their support of President Bush in embattled times, the gubernatorial contests were the place to vent their dissatisfaction with economic problems and state budgetary decisions. The latter was also the venue where third-party and independent candidacies were most apt to flourish in 2002.

Former Democratic Rep. Tim Penny drew 16% of the vote as the gubernatorial nominee of the Independence Party in Minnesota. Wealthy businessman Tom Golisano polled 14% as the Independence Party candidate for governor in New York. Ed Thompson, the younger brother of former GOP Gov. Tommy Thompson, collected 10% of the vote as the Libertarian Party candidate for governor in Wisconsin. And 10% of those who cast ballots in California’s gubernatorial race voted for a collection of third-party candidates rather than choose between Davis and Republican Bill Simon.
The Libertarians also made a noteworthy showing at the congressional level, as the party’s House candidates across the country drew more than 1 million votes.

Compared to What?

There is no denying that the election of 2002 was a Republican victory. How big a victory depends on what benchmark is used.

Compared to 1990, when Democrats still dominated at every level but the presidency, the GOP gains have been amazing.

Compared to 1994, when Republicans scored their big breakthrough, the Republican showing in 2002 produced majorities that were not quite as decisive.

Compared to 2000, when Democrats and Republicans played to “a perfect tie,” Republican gains this year were incremental but significant.

In short, it was an election this November that left the nation “leaning Republican.”

The Republican Majorities: 1994 - 2002
Listed below is the number of seats at the House, Senate and gubernatorial levels that Republicans have held after each election since 1994, the year they won control of Congress and a majority of the nation’s governorships. Since then, voters have accorded Republicans continuing majorities on Capitol Hill and in the governorships, but not with the dominant numbers that were frequently given the Democrats throughout the previous generation.
	1994	1996	1998	2000	2002
House of Representatives	230	227	223	221	229
Senate	53	55	55	50	51
Governors	30	31	31	29	26