THE RHODES COOK LETTER Table of Contents for Issues # 1-37 YEAR ONE (July 2000 – January 2001) Issue # 1 (Vol. 1, No. 1) ….. Presidential Primary Wrap-up ….. July 2000 The Past as Prologue The 1996 Presidential Election by Region and State … 3 Wrapping up the Primaries Clues for the Fall? ……………………………………. 5 Who Ran Well Where ………………………………... 8 Top 25 Congressional Districts: Bradley, Bush, Gore, Keyes (top dozen), McCain ………………………… 8-12 All McCain Districts …………….. 13 Slicing and Dicing the Primary Results ………………. 15 State-by-State Primary Results ……………………….. 18 Ongoing Results What’s up in 2000 …………………………………….. 20 2000 Senate and Gubernatorial Nominations …………. 21 The Other Primaries: A Few Incumbents under Fire … 22 Issue # 2 (Vol. 1, No. 2) ….. Fall Kickoff! ….. September 2000 The Map and the Math Something’s Got to Give ………………………………. 3 State-by-State Presidential Winners since 1968 ………. 5 A Look at the Polls When Do the Winners Emerge? ………………………. 6 The Gallup Poll since World War II ….. 7 Is It Time for Them to Go? The President’s Party at the 8-Year Mark ……………… 8 The 2000 Presidential Tickets ………………………………….. 9 John McCain and the Fall Campaign …………………………... 10 How McCain did, by state ……………………... 11 House Races to Watch Marginals and Opens …………………………………… 12 Ongoing Results What’s Up in 2000 ……………………………………… 15 2000 Senate and Gubernatorial Nominations ………….. 16 The Other Primaries: A Few Incumbents under Fire ….. 17 Issue # 3 (Vol. 1, No. 3) ….. Third-Party Special ….. October 2000 The Presidency and Third Parties The Battle for Third Impacts the Fight for First ……….. 3 Nader 1996 …………………………………………….. 5 Perot and Buchanan: A Reform Party Comparison ……. 7 Track Record of Current Third Parties ………………… 9 The 2000 Presidential Tickets …………………………. 9 Third Parties in the Polls ………………………………. 10 Leading Third Parties since World War II ……………. 10 Slicing and Dicing the Third-Party Vote ………………. 11 Battle for the Bronze …………………………………... 13 Congress Senate Races ……………………………………………. 14 House Races to Watch: Marginal and Open Seats ……… 16 Ongoing Results What’s Up in 2000 ………………………………………. 19 2000 Senate and Gubernatorial Nominations …………… 20 The Other Primaries: A Few Incumbents under Fire …… 21 Issue # 4 (Vol. 1, No. 4) ….. Pre-Election Special! ….. Early November 2000 Pre-Election Special How Election Night Unfolds ……………………………. 3 How the evening will unfold, hour by hour ….. 5 Presidential Elections since 1824 ……………………….. 7 Margins of Victory in the Popular Vote ……… 8 The Fight for California …………………………………. 9 The Battle for the House ………………………………… 11 The Prime Battlegrounds ………………………. 14 The Misfits and Fickles ………………………… 15 Congress Senate Races …………………………………………….. 16 House Races to Watch: Marginal and Open Seats ……… 18 Ongoing Results What’s Up in 2000 ………………………………………. 21 2000 Senate and Gubernatorial Nominations ……………. 22 The Other Primaries: A Few Incumbents under Fire ……. 23 Issue # 5 (Vol. 1, No. 5) ….. Election ’00: The First Take ….. December 2000 The 2000 Election: The Perfect Storm …………………………… 3 The 2000 Election: Too Close to Call ……………………. 4 The Bushes, the GOP and the South: The Electoral Vote since 1988 …………………… 7 The 2000 Senate Results: Even-Steven …………………… 8 The 2000 House Elections: Not All They Were Pumped Up to Be …………………………… 11 The 2000 Gubernatorial Elections: A Second Glance …….. 14 The Presidential Vote Count ………………………………. 16 Issue # 6 (Vol. 1, No. 6) ….. Election ’00: Take Two ….. January 2001 The 2000 Election Where This Presidential Election Fits In …………………... 3 Election Map: By Strength of Support for Bush and Gore … 6 The Nader Factor: Overrated? …………………………….... 7 The Nationwide Popular Vote ……………………………… 8 Official Presidential Vote by State and Region …………….. 9 The ‘Great’ Election of 2000 ……………………………….. 11 Clinton’s Legacy to Congressional Democrats: Not Really So Bad ………………………. 16 YEAR TWO (March 2001 – January 2002) Issue # 7 (Vol. 2, No. 1) ….. A Different Era ….. March 2001 Electoral Reform: If the Electoral Vote was by Congressional District? 3 The Evolving Electoral Map The Republicans: Bush ’00 vs. Bush ’88 ………………………. 6 The Democrats: Gore ’00 vs. Clinton ’96 ……………………… 9 Election 2000: Under the Microscope ………………………………….. 12 For Democrats, it begins with the cities ………. 12 For Republicans, it begins with the South …….. 13 Losing Ground at the Start ………………………………………………. 13 Senate Confirmation Votes: Inside and Outside the ‘L’ ………………… 14 Reapportionment: The Lay of the Land …………………………………. 16 Issue # 8 (Vol. 2, No. 2) ….. 100 Days… And Beyond! ….. May 2001 Bush vs. McCain: The Battle Goes On …………………………………. 3 Bush-McCain District Comparison …………….. 4 The McCain Districts …………………………… 5 Replacing the Vice President: The ‘Modern’ Method …………………... 6 Key Dates and Confirmation Votes …………….. 7 This Just In: Nixon Beats Kennedy ……………………………………… 8 Actual Tally vs. District Plan, 1960-2000 ………. 10 Actual Tally vs. District Plan, 2000 Electoral Vote 11 Shifting House Seats: More Than Meets the Eye ………………………… 12 Regional Changes since 1950 …………………… 12 Major State Changes since 1950 ………………… 13 The Shift in House Seats Over the Last Half Century ……………………….. 14 What’s Up in 2001 Calendar of Events ……………………………………………… 15 Congressional Reapportionment ………………………………… 16 Issue # 9 (Vol. 2, No. 3) ….. The Changing Senate ….. July 2001 Reversal of Fortune in the Senate: In These Parts, a GOP Moderate is Hard to Find ……………… 3 Senate Republicans, 1953-2001 ……… 4 The Jeffords Move … Unprecedented, to a Degree …………… 4 Congressional Party Switches since 1994 ……………………... 5 Third Parties: The Nader Vote …………………………………………. 6 Nader’s Best States …………………………… 6 Nader’s Best Counties ………………………… 7 Election 2000: Winning Big, Winning Small …………………………… 8 Winning Big …………………………………… 8 Winning Small ………………………………… 9 A Nation Divided? What about the States ………………………………. 10 Who Won Where by How Much ……………… 12 Voter Turnout: A Contest-by-Contest Comparison ……………………… 11 2000 Election Turnout: Votes Cast by Contest … 13 The ‘Big Kahunas’ and that ‘Sea of Red’ ……………………………….. 14 2000 Turnout …………………………………… 14 Offsetting that ‘Sea of Red’ ……………………. 15 House Elections …………………………………………………………. 16 High- and Low-Turnout Districts ………………. 17 What’s Up in 2001 Calendar of Events ………………………………………………. 18 Congressional Reapportionment ………………………………… 20 Issue # 10 (Vol. 2, No. 4) ….. What’s Next ….. September 2001 Editor’s Note about 9/11 ………………………………………………… 3 What’s Up in 2001: A Barometer of Things to Come? ............................. 4 Recent New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Results 4 New Jersey, Virginia: Harbingers of the Next Midterm? 5 The Changing Composition of the 107th Congress …. 6 Race by Race: What’s Up in 2001 ………………………………………. 7 What’s Up in 2002: The Approaching Midterm ………………………… 8 State by state: What’s up in 2002 ……………….. 10 2002 Senate Races ………………………………. 11 2002 Gubernatorial Races ……………………….. 12 State by State: Which Party Holds the Most House Seats ……………………….. 13 Al Gore in 2004 (or maybe 2008?) …………………………………… 14 Democratic Nominees in Presidential Elections since World War II ……………………… 14 Democratic Nominees in Presidential Primaries since 1972 ……………………………….. 15 House Elections 2000: Where They Competed & Where They Conceded 16 Totals by Region ………………………………… 16 A Comparison of Congressional and ‘Big Ticket’ Races ………………………. 17 Totals by State …………………………………… 18 Congressional Reapportionment ……………………………………… 19 Issue # 11 (Vol. 2, No. 5) ….. A Year Later ….. November 2001 Election ’00: Part Retro, Part New Age ……………………………….. 3 Districts with split results since 1952 …………… 4 Shrinking coattails ………………………………. 6 The 2000 Presidential Vote: What’s New about the Republican Sea of Red? 7 Slicing and dicing the presidential vote since 1960 8 The Republican Sea of Red: A Rather Regular Occurrence …………... 9 From Clinton to Gore: Bubba’s Broad Base to Geographic Dense Pack ……………… 9 The Bushes: Father and Son: 1988 and 2000 ……. 9 The Devil is in the Details: 2000 Presidential Election Results From a Sampling of Counties, Cities & Towns ………………………… 10 Major urban centers ……………………………… 11 Major suburban counties ………………………… 12 Rural and small-town America ………………….. 13 Academic influence ……………………………… 14 The old and new economy ……………………….. 15 Minorities ………………………………………… 16 Venues of protest …………………………………. 17 November 2001: A Year Later …………………………………………. 18 November 2001: A year’s worth of changes ……… 19 Voter turnout in New Jersey and Virginia: Presidential vs. off years …………………. 20 The changing composition of the 107th Congress … 21 Recent Results from New Jersey, Virginia and New York City ……………………………… 22 Race by Race: What’s Up in ’01 ………………………………………… 23 State by State: What’s Up in ’02 ………………………………………… 24 Issue # 12 (Vol. 2, No. 6) ….. The End of the Lines ….. January 2002 Redistricting: The End of the Lines ………………………………………. 3 Creating a GOP House Majority: The South Has Been the Cornerstone …… 3 GOP House Strength since 1932: The Last Decade Was Their Best ……….. 4 GOP House Strength after the 1992 Election ….. 4 Current GOP House Strength …………………… 4 The Vote for the House: The Last Decade at the Ballot Box ……… 5 What’s Next? Do 2001’s Special Elections Offer Clues for 2002? …… 6 Special House Elections: Sometimes a Harbinger of Things to Come ………………………….. 7 The Changing Composition of the 107th Congress 8 What was up in 2001 (and early 2002) …………. 9 It Could Be a Real Race ………………………………………………… 10 Redistricting and House Competitiveness over the Years …………………………… 11 GOP Strength in the 2000 Presidential and Congressional Vote …………………. 11 The 2000 Election Democratic Senate Gains & the Republican Sea of Red ……………….. 12 Making a Few Counties Go a Long Way ………… 13 The Republican Sea of Red and the 2000 Senate Elections ……………. 14 The ‘Sea of Red” and the 2002 Senate Lineup …… 15 Hillary and Bobby: Some Political Parallels ……………………………. 16 Similarities in their New York Senate Wins ……… 16 Comparing Their Senate Vote in Regions of the Empire State ……………………….. 17 Comparing Their Senate Vote in a Sampling of New York Counties ……………………. 18 State by State: What’s Up in ’02 ………………………………………… 19 YEAR THREE (March 2002 – December 2002) Issue # 13 (Vol. 3, No. 1) ….. A Year for Primaries ….. March 2002 Election 2002 A Year for Primaries …………………………………………………. 3 2002 Primaries by Month ………………………. 3 2002 Primary Calendar …………………………. 4 Defeated House Members, 1992-2000 …………. 5 Tripping over the Primary Hurdle ………………. 6 Decade by Decade: Defeated House Members …. 7 House Members Renominated With Less than 55% of the Vote in 2000 .. 8 Who Can Vote in the Primaries? ………………………… 9 Incumbents and Primaries: The Geography of Defeat ……………….. 9 The Presidential Nominating Process Looking Ahead to 2004 ……………………………………………… 10 Recent Presidential Primaries and Caucuses: Who’s Won the Early Events …………….. 10 Republicans in the Spotlight, Democrats in the Shadows …………………………… 11 Start with Iowa and New Hampshire, Then Shuffle the Deck ……………………. 12 The Changing Composition of the 107th Congress …………………… 14 What Was Up in 2001 (and early 2002) ………………………………. 15 State by State: What’s Up in ’02 ………………………………………. 16 Issue # 14 (Vol. 3, No. 2) ….. Shifting Seats ….. May 2002 Measuring Competitiveness House Seats That Switched Hands since Redistricting ………………… 3 Seats Switching Parties: The Highlights …………. 3 A Look at Partisan Seats Shifts in the House after 1992 4 The Aggregate House Vote, 1992-2000: How Close Was It? ……………………….. 5 For States, Volatility Not a Function of Size …….. 6 House Seats That Switched Party Hands,1993-2001 7 The 2002 Primaries A Good Start for Incumbents ……………………………………………. 11 The 2002 Primaries: House Casualties ………… 13 March 2002 Gubernatorial & Senate Primary Results 14 A Comparison of Recent Midterm Elections …… 15 Voter Registration Where Democrats Still Retain the Upper Hand …………………………. 16 Party Registration in 2000 ………………………. 17 Party Registration by State, 1992-2000 …………. 18 Party Registration by State: Democrats in 2000 … 21 Party Registration by State: Republicans in 2000 .. 22 Party Registration by State: “Other Voters” in 2000 23 State by State: What’s Up in ’02 …………………………………………. 24 Issue # 15 (Vol. 3, No. 3) ….. Halftime of the Primaries ….. July 2002 Halfway Through the Primaries Parties Could Do Better in ‘Civics 101’ ………………………………… 3 ’02 Senate & Gubernatorial Primaries: Most Won Handily ………………………. 3 How 2002 is Fitting In … From a Primary Perspective ……………… 4 The 2002 Primaries: House Casualties …………... 5 Incumbents in the ’02 Primaries: An Easy Hurdle for Most ……………….. 6 Pennsylvania’s 2002 Democratic Gubernatorial Primary …………………… 8 Pennsylvania Democratic Politics: Ed Rendell vs. the Caseys ……………….. 9 2002 Primary Turnout: The Top States through June …………….. 10 Gubernatorial & Senate Nominations at a Glance ……………………… 11 The Remaining 2002 Primary Calendar ………………………………… 12 Voting in 2002: A Patriotic Surge? …………………………………….. 13 Springboards to Higher Office in 2002 …………………………………. 14 For the Record 2002 Gubernatorial & Senate Primary Results ………………………….. 16 Issue # 16 (Vol. 3, No. 4) ….. On To the Fall ….. October 2002 On to the Fall ……………………………………………………………… 3 How 2002 is Fitting in … From a Primary Perspective ……………. 3 A Profile of Losing House Incumbents in 1992 … 4 Incumbents in the ’02 Primaries: An Easy Hurdle for Most ………………… 5 Florida Democratic Gubernatorial Primary ……… 6 2002 Primary Turnouts: Not So Bad …………….. 7 New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary …….. 8 Healthy Competition, Good Turnouts ……………. 9 Israel, Congress and the 2002 Primaries …………. 10 The 2002 Primaries: Congressional Casualties ….. 11 The Changing Composition of the 107th Congress …………………….. 13 2002 Gubernatorial & Senate Nominations at a Glance ……………….. 14 Competitiveness in the 2002 Primaries ………………………………… 15 State by State: What’s Up in 2002 ……………………………………… 16 For the Record: 2002 Gubernatorial & Senate Primary Results ………… 17 Issue # 17 (Vol. 3, No. 5) ….. Fit To Be Tied? ….. November 2002 Fit to be Tied: The Battle to Control Congress in 2002 …………………. 3 The Evolution of a Tie …………………………… 4 A Popular President, His Party Benefits …………. 5 Vox Populi ……………………………………….. 6 House Reapportionment: The Top Three States Each Decade ……… 7 Current Developments, Current Trends The Changing Composition of the 107th Congress 8 ‘Big Ticket’ Races: Republican Victories in the Last 10 Elections ………………… 9 Longest Current Winning Streaks in Gubernatorial and Senate Races ………………………. 11 The 2002 Congressional Elections Do the Math, and the Result Is: Not Much of a Contest ………………… 12 Competitive House Races Since 1990 ………….. 12 Paired Incumbents: They Could Prove Decisive .. 14 House Marginals ………………………………... 15 The Iraq Vote and the 2002 Senate Lineup …….. 17 The Battle for the Senate: A Strange Finish ……. 18 The Best of the Rest Third Party/Independent Governors since 1990 ... 19 Third Party/Independent Candidates of Note in 2000 …………………………. 19 Election Day Lineups 2002 Gubernatorial & Senate Candidates at a Glance ………………………………. 20 Election Day Poll Closing Times ………………… 21 State by State: What’s Up in 2002 ……………….. 22 Issue # 18 (Vol. 3, No. 6) ….. Leaning Republican ….. December 2002 Leaning Republican ……………………………………………………… 3 Election 2002: Where Things Stand …………….. 3 The Nationwide Vote in ’02 for Congress and Governors …………………………… 4 The 2002 Election Compared to Midterm Elections since 1990 ……………………………….. 5 Looking for Competition? Try the Gubernatorial Races …………….. 6 The Dwindling Competition in House Races ……. 6 The Republican Majorities ………………………. 8 The Big Picture 2002 Election Summary by State and Region ……. 9 Few Incumbents Defeated in 2002 General Election 11 House Results The House Marginals of 2002 ……………………. 12 Senate Results 2002 Senate Election Results by State ……………. 14 2002 Senate Elections: Small Change has Big Impact ……………………………. 15 Gubernatorial Results 2002 Gubernatorial Elections: A Hotbed of Volatility …………………… 16 2002 Gubernatorial Election Results by State ……. 18 Presidents and Midterms Presidents, Midterms and the Next Election ……… 19 Presidential Nominees and the Midterm Bounce … 20 Changing Composition of the 107th Congress …………………………… 21 Special Election Results, 2001-02 ………………………………………. 22 YEAR FOUR (February 2003 – December 2003) Issue # 19 (Vol. 4, No. 1) ….. The South and the GOP ….. February 2003 The South, the GOP and the White House …………………………….. 3 The Party of Lincoln …………………………….. 3 The Party of the ‘Southern Strategy’ …………….. 4 The GOP and the Presidency …………………….. 5 Percentage of Republican Electoral Votes From the South …………………………… 6 The South vs. the Non-South …………………….. 6 The South: Cornerstone of Bush’s 2000 Victory … 7 The South in 2004: Offering Even More Electoral Votes ……………………………. 8 Recalling Strom Thurmond and His 1948 Campaign …………………… 9 The South from the Dixiecrats to the Present …….. 10 Strom Thurmond’s Top Counties in 1948 ………… 11 Vote in African-American Strongholds …………… 12 The South & Congress: A Latecomer to the GOP Side ………………….. 13 Republican House Seats in the South at Key Points since 1952 …………………. 14 South Cornerstone of Recent GOP House Majorities 15 108th Congress: No South, No GOP Control ……… 15 Changing Composition of the 108th Congress ……………………………. 16 What’s up in 2003 ………………………………………………………… 16 What’s up in 2004 ………………………………………………………… 17 Issue # 20 (Vol. 4, No. 2) ….. The Invisible Primary ….. April 2003 Winning “the Invisible Primary” …………………………………………. 3 Recent Presidential Nominations: Money the Most Reliable Indicator ………………… 4 At the End of the First Quarter: Money and the Polls 5 First Quarter Money Leaders since 1979: Not a Safe Bet ………………………….. 6 Smooth Path to Renomination, Bush Looking Good in Key Indicator ………………….. 7 2004 Presidential Candidates: Some Biographical Comparisons ………… 9 2004 Presidential Candidates: A Timeline of Their Elective Offices ……. 10 2004 Presidential Candidates: Years in Elective Office ………………….. 11 Tentative 2004 Presidential Primary Calendar …… 12 Gulf War II: An Issue in the Making? ………………………………….. 13 2004 Democratic Candidates’ Gulf War Votes ….. 13 Congressional Gulf War Votes, 1991-2002 ……... 14 Congressional Democrats Divided on Gulf War II 15 What’s up in 2004 ………………………………………………………. 18 What’s up in 2003 ………………………………………………………. 19 Changing Composition of the 108th Congress ………………………….. 19 Issue # 21 (Vol. 4, No. 3) ….. The Expected and Unexpected ….. June 2003 The Elections of 2003: the Expected and Unexpected ………………….. 3 What’s up in 2003 ……………………………… 4 Changing Composition of the 108th Congress …. 4 The South: Safely Republican at Federal Level .. 5 House Seats: States on the Grow ………………. 7 Texas’ Democratic ‘Misfits’ …………………… 9 Gray Davis’ Decline …………………………… 11 Democratic Presidential Calendar Taking Shape ……………………….. 12 Tentative 2004 Presidential Primary-Caucus Schedule ………………. 12 Tentative 2004 Democratic Calendar and Delegate Totals …………………….. 13 What’s up in 2004 ………………………………………………………… 14 Gubernatorial, House Candidates at the Ballot Box ……………………… 15 Issue # 22 (Vol. 4, No. 4) ….. A Busy Fall ….. August 2003 A Busy Fall Ahead ………………………………………………………. 3 The California Recall: The End of a Democratic Era? ………….. 4 The Recall ‘Jury’: California’s Dozen Dozen Leading Counties ………………… 5 Where House GOP is Overrepresented, Underrepresented …….. 6 Democratic Dense Pack ………………………………………………….. 8 End of 2nd Quarter: Money and the Polls ………… 8 A Democratic Success Index …………………….. 9 2nd Quarter Money Leaders since 1979 ………….. 10 Tentative 2004 Democratic Presidential Primary-Caucus Schedule and Delegate Count …………………………… 11 What’s up in 2003 ……………………………………………………….. 12 Changing Composition of the 108th Congress …………………………… 12 What’s up in 2004 ………………………………………………………… 13 Gubernatorial, House Candidates at the Ballot Box ……………………… 14 Issue # 23 (Vol. 4, No. 5) ….. Red and Blue America Redux ….. October 2003 Bush, the Democrats and ‘Red’ and ‘Blue’ America ……………………. 3 Red & Blue America Summary ………………… 4 Red & Blue USA ’02 Results, ’04 Action ……… 5 Bush and the Map, 2000-04 ……………………. 8 The President’s Party at Midterm and Presidential Elections that Follow … 9 GOP Gains Separation in ’02 House Vote ……... 10 California: The Cornerstone of ‘Blue’ America ………………………….. 11 Turnout Comparison: The Recall vs. High Profile Races of ’02 …………………………….. 11 The Recall Vote by County …………….. 12 Ronnie & Arnold: Boffo Political Debuts 13 Tentative 2004 Democratic Primary Calendar and Delegate Count ……… 15 Other 2003 Elections: Gubernatorial, House Candidates at Ballot Box ….. 16 Changing Composition of the 108th Congress … And Governorships ……. 17 Issue # 24 (Vol. 4, No. 6) ….. The Visible Primaries ….. December 2003 Enter the Voters …………………………………………………………. 3 Democratic Success Index ………………………. 3 Republicans Nominate Early Front-Runners, Democrats Often Don’t …………………... 4 2004 Nominating Season at a glance …………….. 6 2004 Democratic Delegate Selection by Month …. 8 2000 Democratic and Republican Primary Results 10 Iowa, New Hampshire and the Road to Nomination 12 A Thumbnail Look at the ‘Kingmakers’ …………. 13 Gephardt’s 1988 Presidential Run ……………….. 14 At the End of the Third Quarter: Money and the Polls …………………... 15 The Ups and Downs of the ‘Invisible Primary’ ….. 16 Bush and the Electoral College Map …………….. 18 Looking Back, Looking Ahead ………………………………………….. 19 What’s up in 2004 ………………………………… 19 2003 Gubernatorial Elections: The Constant is Change …………………. 20 Changing Composition of the 108th Congress …… 21 YEAR FIVE (February 2004 – November 2004) Issue # 25 (Vol. 5, No. 1) ….. Kerry Breaks Out ….. February 2004 Kerry Breaks Out ……………………………………………………… 3 2004 Nationwide Democratic Primary Results and Delegate Count …………………… 3 2004 Democratic Delegate Count ……………... 4 2004 Democratic Primary, Caucus Results ……. 6 Democratic Primary Turnout … Comparing ’04 with Previous Highs …… 7 Bush and New Hampshire: A Cause for Pause? .. 8 The Vote from Assorted Places and Constituencies through February ………………………. 10 Key Contests in Shaping the Race Iowa Democratic Precinct Caucuses ……………. 13 New Hampshire Democratic Primary …………… 14 Wisconsin Democratic Primary …………………. 15 The Illusion of Inclusion ……………………………………………… 16 Super Tuesday through April: Any More Surprises Ahead? …………… 17 Bush and the Electoral College Map …………… 20 Wrapping Up the ‘Invisible Primary’ Deans Wins the Pre-Season, Kerry Second …….. 21 The ‘Invisible Primary’ in the Gallup Poll ……… 21 Money and the Democrats: No Harbinger in 2004 23 Changing Composition of the 108th Congress ……………………….. 24 What’s up in 2004 ……………………………………………………. 25 Special House Elections in 2003-04 …………………………………. 26 Issue # 26 (Vol. 5, No. 2) ….. Clues for the Fall ….. April 2004 Bush and Reelection: Close Races Not a Good Sign …………………. 3 Presidents and Reelection: Winning Big … or Losing … the Norm ………………. 3 Presidents, Polls and Reelection ………………… 4 The Republican Primaries: The Non-Bush Vote … 5 The Battleground States …………………………. 6 Bush and the Electoral College Map ……………. 8 Kerry’s Challenge: Make Inroads in ‘Red’ America …………………. 9 Kerry in the ’04 Primaries ………………………. 9 2004 Democratic and Republican Presidential Primary Results ……………. 10 Slicing and Dicing the ’04 Democratic Primary Vote …………………………….. 12 Summing up the Democratic Nominating Race to Date ……………… 15 2004 Democratic Primary, Caucus Results …….. 15 Democratic Primary Turnout … Comparing ’04 with Previous Highs ……. 16 Super Tuesday Vote from Assorted Places ……… 17 Other Primaries: Turmoil in Texas ……………………………………. 19 Congressional Incumbents in the ’04 Primaries …. 20 2004 Congressional and Gubernatorial Primary Calendar ………………………… 21 March 2004 Senate Primary Results …………….. 22 Issue # 27 (Vol. 5, No. 3) ….. Registration Trends ….. June 2004 More Voters are Steering away from Party Labels ……………………. 3 Nationwide Party Registration Trends Since 1987 4 Party Registration Trends Since 1987: By Regions 6 Spring 2004 Party Registration Totals …………… 9 Party Registration: Highly Predictive of 2000 Presidential Vote …………………… 10 The Presidential Primaries: Finally Over ……………………………… 11 2004 Aggregate Nationwide Presidential Primary Results ………………………….. 11 2004 Democratic Primary, Caucus Results by State 12 2004 Congressional Elections: A Hint of 1994 ………………………… 14 Special House Elections 2003-2004 ……………... 14 2004 Senate and Gubernatorial Nominations at a Glance ……………………………….. 15 2004 Congressional and Gubernatorial Primary Calendar ………………………… 16 Congressional Incumbents in the ’04 Primaries …. 17 Pennsylvania Republican Senate Primary ……….. 18 The Changing Composition of the 108th Congress and Governorships ………………………… 20 Issue # 28 (Vol. 5, No. 4) ….. Ticket Building ….. August 2004 Democratic Ticket Building: Kerry-Edwards ………………………….. 3 2004 Aggregate Nationwide Presidential Primary Results …………… 4 Presidential Nominees and Their Primary Vote Since 1972 ………………………………. 5 Pairing Primary Rivals: Kerry – Edwards ………. 6 Pairing Primary Rivals: Reagan – Bush ………… 7 Edwards ’98 Senate Race Compared to Recent Democratic Tickets ……………… 9 The Democratic Key to Success in the South and Nearby States ………………………. 10 2004 Democratic Primaries and Caucuses: Non-Kerry Districts ……………………… 11 GOP Ticket Building: Bush Assumes Visible Role ……………………. 12 Presidents, Primaries and Reelection ……………. 12 2004 GOP Primaries: The Non-Bush Vote ……… 13 Gubernatorial and Congressional Incumbents in the ’04 Primaries ……………………… 15 African-American Candidates and the Presidential Primary ……………………… 16 Gay Marriage Vote: Round 1 ……………………. 17 Remaining ’04 Congressional & Gubernatorial Primary Calendar ………………………… 18 For the Record ………………………………………………………….. 19 2004 Democratic Primary, Caucus Results by State 19 2004 Senate Primary Results …………………….. 21 2004 Gubernatorial Primary Results …………….. 22 The Changing Composition of the 108th Congress and Governorships ………………………. 23 Kerry Nominated ………………………………… 24 Issue # 29 (Vol. 5, No. 5) ….. The Era of the ‘L’ ….. October 2004 The Era of the ‘L’ ……………………………………………………….. 3 Presidential Voting Since 1932: Four Different Eras …………………….. 3 Bush v. Gore: The ‘L’ in the 2000 Presidential Election …………………… 4 ‘L’ Era Applies to Both Ends of Pennsylvania Ave. 5 Carving into the Other Party’s Geographic Base .. 6 Nader’s Green Party Presidential Runs, 1996-2000 8 Massachusetts Democrats & the Presidency: One Win, One Loss ……………………. 9 Early Fall 2004 Party Registration Totals ……... 10 States with Changes in Party Registration Since June 2004 ………………………… 11 Congressional Races: The Terrain Shifts ……………………………….. 12 Close Calls in ’04 Gubernatorial and Congressional Primaries …………. 13 Up and Down the Ballot ……………………….. 15 Special House Elections 2003-04 ……………… 17 For the Record …………………………………………………………… 18 2004 Senate Primary Results by State and Region 18 2004 Gubernatorial Primary Results …………… 20 The Changing Composition of the 108th Congress and Governorships ……………………….. 21 Issue # 30 (Vol. 5, No. 6) ….. And the Winner Is ….. November 2004 Who Wins Depends on Who Votes ……………………………………… 3 The Expanding Electorate ………………………. 3 Presidential Election Turnouts since 1948 ……… 4 Higher Turnouts Generally Mean a Vote for Change 5 Voter turnout by State in the 2000 Presidential Election ……………………. 6 Election Eve 2004: Where Things Stand ………… 7 Close Presidential Elections: Not that Common … 8 Nationwide Party Registration Totals since 1987 .. 9 Presidents and Reelection ………………………... 10 Election Eve 2004 Party Registration Totals …….. 11 Party Registration: Highly Predictive of the 2000 Presidential Vote …………………… 12 Election Night: Things to Watch ………………………………………… 13 State-by-State Polling Hours …………………….. 13 The Nader Factor ………………………………… 15 The Battle for the ‘Burbs ………………………… 16 For the Record: Election Notes ………………………………………….. 16 2004 Presidential Tickets ………………………… 16 Presidential Elections since 1948: A Slight GOP Advantage ………………… 17 2002 Midterm Elections: Winning Big, Winning Small …………………………… 17 2002 House Races: Where They Voted and Where They Didn’t 19 YEAR SIX (January 2005 – November 2005) Issue # 31 (Vol. 6, No. 1) ….. A Bush Mandate? ….. January 2005 A Bush Mandate? It’s in the Eye of the Beholder ……………………… 3 Counting the 2004 Vote ………………………… 3 Case for a Mandate ……………………………… 4 The 2004 Nationwide Popular Vote for President 5 Presidents and Reelection: Where Bush Stands … 6 Election 2004: Where the Parties Stand ………… 6 The 50-Million Vote Club ………………………. 6 Top Bush, Kerry States in 2004 …………………. 7 On the Other Hand ………………………………. 8 Reelected Presidents and Their Popular Vote Margins since 1920 ………………………. 9 Reelected Presidents and Their Electoral Vote Margins since 1900 ………………………. 9 Reelected Presidents and Their Margins in Vote Percentage ……………………….. 9 Victory for ‘Team Republican’ …………………... 10 Bush and the GOP in ’04: Growing the Republican Majority ……….. 11 A Year for Republicans, a Year for Incumbents …. 11 Republican Majorities: Built in the South ……….. 12 For the Record …………………………………………………………. 13 Official 2004 Presidential Vote ………………….. 13 Official 2004 House Vote ………………………... 14 Official 2004 Senate Vote ………………………... 15 Official 2004 Gubernatorial Vote ………………… 16 Changing Composition of Governorships since the 2002 Election …………………… 16 Issue # 32 (Vol. 6, No. 2) ….. When People Vote ….. March 2005 When People Vote: ’04’s Sky High Turnout and Its Place in History ….. 3 More than One way to Measure Voter Turnout ….. 4 The 2004 Election: Highest Turnout Rate since 1968 ……….. 5 The 80-Million Vote Elections …………………... 6 Elections with 55% Turnout Rate since World War II ……………………… 6 5-Million Vote Increases ………………………… 8 10% Increases since 1896 ……………………….. 8 Turnout Firsts for Presidential Elections ………… 8 Largest Increases by Party in Presidential Election Turnout ………… 8 Some ’04 Turnout Comparisons ………………………………………… 9 Slicing and Dicing the Large Turnout Increase in 2004 ………………………………….. 9 The Partisan Nature of the Turnout Increase ……. 10 Voter Turnout Rates in 2004: Highest in the Frost Belt ………………… 11 Biggest Gains in Bush Country ………………….. 12 A Compilation of Turnout-Related Rankings …… 13 In the News ……………………………………………………………… 15 Howard Dean and the Vermont Credential ……… 15 Where Dean Ran Best in the 2004 Democratic Contests ……………………. 16 What’s up in 2006 ……………………………….. 17 The Changing Composition of the 109th Congress 18 Issue # 33 (Vol. 6, No. 3) ….. Battle of the Bases ….. May 2005 Battle of the Bases ………………………………………………………. 3 The Republican ‘L’ vs. the Democratic Coasts ….. 4 Red and Blue States: Bush Wins the Most Counties 5 Kerry has Big Edge in the Most Populous Counties 6 The Democratic Vote: Where Cities were Enough 7 Gay Marriage Ban and the Bush Vote in 2004 ….. 8 Archaeology of the Suburbs: The Northern Virginia Example …………. 9 The 25 Most Populous Counties: A Democratic Building Block …………… 10 The 25 Fastest-Growing Counties: A Republican Building Block ……………. 11 The Democratic Base ……………………………………………………. 12 Democratic Constituencies: A Sampling ………… 12-15 The Republican Base …………………………………………………….. 16 Republican Constituencies: A Sampling ………… 16-18 Up for Grabs ……………………………………………………………… 19 Results from a Sampling of Counties, Cities and Towns ………………………………. 19-20 In the News ……………………………………………………………….. 21 What’s up in 2006 ……………………………….. 21 The Changing Composition of the 109th Congress 22 Issue # 34 (Vol. 6, No. 4) ….. Competition and Congruency ….. July 2005 Competition and Congruency …………………………………………… 3 Presidential Election Winners since 1960 ……….. 3 The Big Sort: The Parties Dig In ………………… 4 State by State in 2004: Highly ‘Sorted’ to Highly Competitive ……………………… 5 House, Senate Reelection Rates since World War II 6 The Decline in Competitive House Races ……….. 7 Geography of Competition: The 2004 House Marginals ……………… 8 The Increasing Congruency in Presidential, House Voting ……………………………... 9 The House ‘Misfits’: Key to a Democratic Majority 10 The 2004 Vote by Regions ……………………….. 11 Geographical Congruency in the 2004 Results …… 12 Largest, Smallest Victory Margins in 2004 ………. 13 In the News ……………………………………………………………… 14 What’s up in 2006 ……………………………….. 14 2005 Gubernatorial Primary Results ……………... 15 The Changing Composition of the 109th Congress 16 Issue # 35 (Vol. 6, No. 5) ….. The Politics of Trauma ….. September 2005 The Politics of Trauma …………………………………………………… 3 Republican Strength in Congress since the Election of Bush I ……………… 3 Presidents and Their Parties in the 6-Year Midterm Elections ………… 4 Bush Coattail Pull in 2004 ……………………….. 5 Targets of Opportunity in 2006? …………………. 6 Bush Coattails in Historical Terms ………………. 7 Senators up in ’06: How They Ran in 2000 ……… 8 The Ohio 2nd Special Election: A Harbinger for ’06? 9 The GOP’s Evolving Congressional Base ………... 10 Wrapping Up 2004: Party Registration ………………………………….. 11 Democrats, Republicans, Others: Where They Stood by State in Nov. ’04 ….. 11 The Prescience of Party Registration Totals in 2004 12 Registration by State from Election to Election, 2000-04 …………………………………… 13 In the News ………………………………………………………………. 16 The Changing Composition of the 109th Congress .. 16 What’s up in 2006 ………………………………… 16 Issue # 36 (Vol. 6, No. 6) ….. An Eventful Year ….. November 2005 An Eventful Year …………………………………………………………. 3 Lowest Gallup Poll Presidential Approval Ratings since FDR ……………………………….. 4 November 2005 N.J., Virginia, NYC Results …… 5 Virginia’s Fastest-Growing Jurisdictions: Democrats Make Inroads ………………… 6 N.J., Virginia Gubernatorial Results since 1981 ... 7 Voter Turnout in ’05: Barely Half of ’04 ………... 8 A Sampling of November 2005 Ballot Measures … 9 Arnold and His Propositions …………………….. 10 Fall 2005 Party Registration Totals: Democratic Advantage Declines ………… 12 The Gay Marriage Ban Redux: State-by-State Votes, ’04-’05 ……………. 13 The Gay Marriage Ban: Beachheads of Opposition 14 For the Record …………………………………………………………… 15 Key Members of Congress: Their Military Service and Iraq War Vote 15 Senate Democrats & Major ‘05 Confirmation Votes 17 Senate Democrats & Major ’05 Confirmation Votes: Those All ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ …………………. 18 Fissures among Senate Democrats on Major ’05 Confirmation Votes ………………….. 19 In the News ……………………………………………………………… 20 What’s up in 2006 ……………………………….. 20 The Changing Composition of the 109th Congress 22 YEAR SEVEN (January 2006 - ) Issue # 37 (Vol. 7, No. 1) ….. One Month to Texas ….. January 2006 One Month to Texas …………………………………………………….. 3 2006 Primary Election Calendar by Month ……… 3 2006 Primary Calendar: What’s Up When ………. 4 Some Primary Hot Spots in ’06: An Early Look … 6 Breaking a Sweat: Congressional Incumbents Renominated with less than 60% of the ’04 Primary Vote …………………………. 7 Highest Incumbent Primary Election Losses since World War II ………………………. 8 Year by Year: Incumbents Defeated in House, Senate Primaries & General Elections Since 1990 ……………………………….. 8 Senate, Gubernatorial Primary Losers since 1990 9 The Geography of Primary Defeat: House Incumbents Beaten for Renomination since 1990 ……………………………….. 10 Decade by Decade: Defeated House Incumbents over the Last Half Century ………………. 11 Remapping Texas: From Democratic to Republican in Four Short Years ………………………. 12 Current Republican House Strength in the Larger States ………………………. 13 2006 Primary Calendar: Who Can Vote Where ….. 14 Two Years to Iowa ……………………………………………………… 16 Iowa, New Hampshire and the Fight to be First ….. 18 For the Record ………………………………………………………….. 19 The Changing Composition of the 109th Congress .. 19 Special House Elections in 2005-06 ……………… 19